AUS Men's Playoff Preview

We've been awaiting this for awhile. So have the players, it's safe to say. The following are a few late night musings from Dylan on who might have a slightly better chance this weekend.

So, who's going to win it? After the jump.... (We like this new tool, you know.)
DalSoccerLive's pick to win: Dalhousie. And we're not just saying that because they're "our"* team.

It's a very simple equation: home field advantage. The Tigers have slipped a lot down the stretch. Pat Nearing blamed swine flu in an article on Bill McLean's Haligonia Sports blog on SSN Canada.

Flu aside, Dal have a significant home turf boost. They've played to a 7-0-0 record at Wickwire this year, and outscored opponents 18-2. That's a big statistic.

And their support is a big reason for that (although one could also argue that the turf and often exposed conditions help). Dal have drawn very well for every home game this year, and most have featured a loud and boisterous group of Howe Hall residents who are only too eager to taunt the opposition and motivate the home side.

It goes beyond a 12th man, though--the Tigers have one of the best technical sides in this tournament. They've upgraded their strike force this year, adding Michel Daoust and Hamzeh Afani, who have combined for 8 goals. Both have pace and ability to finish, which gives Dalhousie a dangerous counter.

They can also build through midfield, using Ross Hagen's box-to-box skills to create more chances for Daoust and Afani. Finally, they score a lot from set pieces thanks to big centre halves Kerry Weymann and Nathan Rogers.

Talk to Nearing about the offense and he quickly reminds you of the defense. The Tigers reagrd the offense as a bonus--they know they can rely on Ben Ur, hero of last year's AUS playoffs, for a solid performance.

The Cape Breton Capers will be a threat. Like Dalhousie, they also have a bye into the semi-finals, and they finished on 30 points, 3 ahead of Dalhousie.

The Capers, though, can be an erratic bunch. I've seen them play at Wickwire twice and both times they've been underwhelming. They bring a different flavour to the game, with a heavy Carribbean influence. The Caper game is aggressive and fast. They play very physically, which can intimidate teams, although it also makes them more susceptible to lapses in discipline.

If CBU play their best game, they can beat Dal. The Capers took the second meeting of the season 2-1 in Sydney, but that's where home turf comes in. Although the teams met in the first game of the season at Wickwire--making it hard to judge their performance at this point--the Capers did not deal well with the exuberant fans and came out flat. They have to avoid doing that or Dalhousie will beat them again.

The other four teams: UdeM, UNB, UPEI, and St.FX are an interesting bunch. All four have some bright spots, and they'll be fighting to make sure Dal and Cape Breton don't get a chance to test my analysis.

None of them can quite boast the ability or record of the two favourites, but any of them could have a great weekend.

They'll have to play three games in three days to win it all, though--never an easy feat. It will be made even harder by what is likely to be atrocious weather on Friday. While Dal and Cape Breton sit warm inside, the other four teams will be playing in temperatures that will hover around three degrees and could include snow and rain.

Of the four underdogs, I like UdeM. I've never seen them play, but they practised today (Thursday) and looked relaxed and quietly confident. They have two capable scorers in Olivier Babineau and Patrick Gautreau. They've given Dalhousie some significant trouble this year.

Fortunately for the Tigers, they cannot draw the Aigles-Bleu in the semi-final. As the lowest seed, a Moncton win would see them play Cape Breton, which would be a game well-worth seeing.

UNB are another team who haven't played at Wickwire this year. Although usually a dangerous team, it's hard to find any one player who could steal a game. That makes them a dangerous team: well-balanced and hard to predict. If they win, they'll play Dal, a fixture which produced a 0-0 result in Fredericton this year.

St. FX are a very good team, boasting Michal Marousek's 10 goals with a decent supporting cast. I've seen them once this year, but in very bad conditions. They lost to Dal on a penalty, but rarely threatened goal.

UPEI are another team, which due to various circumstances, I've never seen. They have an interesting group of players, but may struggle on the turf after switching to a grass field this year at UPEI.

As Nearing said in the Haligonia Sports piece: anything could happen. And he's right. Fortunately for you, we're going out on a limb here and throwing some predictions around. Feel free to vehemently abuse them in the comments section below. Or offer your own interpretations.

*DalSoccerLive is an independent publication and we do not "cheer" for Dal. That said, we may occasionally show signs of happiness when they score. We are DalSoccerLive, after all.